Luxon the likely frontrunner in Nats' leadership race


Politics

On Tuesday the National Party will re-vote for a new leader – the fifth since Sir John Key’s sudden resignation in 2016. The embassy will have several holes for the new leader to close, writes political editor Jo Moir.

Analysis: The National Party is in such a state of disarray that almost everyone can participate in Tuesday’s presidential election, but only a few can seriously consider the process, and a few choices are reliable.

Some have speculated about how the future of the next leader was published after a 24-hour riot and explosion in Parliament, starting with Judith Collins’ strange story Wednesday night. announcing the removal of Simon Bridges and stripping him of his reputation.

The former manager is said to have made inappropriate remarks in front of his colleague Jacqui Dean at a ceremony at Premier House in 2016.

Deputy Prime Minister Bill English spoke to him after Dean complained and Bridges apologized.

He later found out that the complaint was still a problem Wednesday night when Collins released the news – Bridges was told there had been concerns in the past but said he did not know much.

While the Bridges backed Collins one step further, he had no immediate numbers to take over.

He also apologized to Dean on Thursday, and described Collins’ actions as “extremely neglected”.

Caucus backed him on Thursday when MPs met and voted no confidence in the leader, ending 16 months in office.

When the Bridges outed led Collins to the front line, they obviously did not have the numbers right away to challenge the leadership.

As a result, the caucus has given himself a break from the election and elected a new deputy to Shane Reti as the long-serving leader and will reunite on Tuesday to elect a new boss.

This gives counselors the next four days to determine if they are driving or assisting someone, and if so, who.

Opponents

Bridges they do not know if they can compete for leadership.

On Thursday he told reporters to consider it in the next few days.

Simon Bridges knows the hardships that come with being an opposition leader. Photo: Lynn Grieveson

“I think I know what New Zealand needs right now but let’s think it over.”

“There was no work. I was honest in my clear words … with no intention of standing where things were. It’s changed. I will consider it, ” he said.

Truth has done the job and he knows how difficult it can be for something, as Bridges will be a reality troublemaker, if he could run again.

But there are questions about how the entire saga has tarnished his credibility and how Collins’ campaign in recent months as he fought for elections has been viewed by voters.

Although the caucuses have chosen Collins to be their party, it does not mean that they have chosen him as their leader, especially if his preferences have been successful in recent elections.

A well-known successor is a former Air New Zealand captain Chris Luxon.

Senior MP Mark Mitchell will put his hand up for the job, but as has been the case in the past he will read the room and quickly realize he has no support.

They have the benefit of being fresh and glamorous as well as having a business reputation and the ability to run and direct a large team.

While this is not always the case in politics, it is a better start than most.

He appears on the ballot which means he has a well-known name and has the support of Sir John Key – a widely accepted in the National Party.

Newsroom understands that Luxon has been keen to relinquish any leadership position until he has spent a long time in Parliament but the decision has been lifted off the table after Collins’ pressure last night.

Senior MP Mark Mitchell no doubt he will put his hand up for the job, but as in the past he will read the room and quickly realize he has no help.

Another option is to run to the free party wing and throw Chris Bishop, Nicola Willis or Erica Stanford to work.

They have all been very successful in the caucus since the election and if the election was based on work, each of them could win a mile.

But the open wings have fewer than 33 members and it is unlikely that any of them would get the numbers needed to become a leader.

Their peers also remember a long time ago and taking part in the Todd Muller terrorist attack would be tantamount to their ambitions for leadership.

It is possible that Willis or Stanford could be considered a second-in-command for Luxon to take care of his interests and reflect the gender divisions needed in the leadership team.

Nicola Willis holds political office and appears to be second in command to Chris Luxon. Photo: Lynn Grieveson

Willis could be at the forefront for these reasons as he hails from Wellington, which could challenge Luxon’s Auckland – Stanford and Auckland.

Willis has also been in and around Parliament for a long time and knows how the venue works – he previously worked at Key and helped train him in his leader’s discussions.

He has brought some of the politics that Luxon lacks.

Koma Shane Reti, it is unlikely that the winner will quietly run, and will have difficulty finding real help.

The party needs to stay on track because some changes before the election are not possible.

Although Luxon is politically neutral he would have had the support and respect of caucus counselors who could help with this.

Caucus has time to think about different colors in the coming days, and phones will be ringing as decisions are made over and over again.

It would be guaranteed that Bridges would be funded (say goodbye to what Collins did as treasurer) – as the former prime minister and close ally at Luxon would provide a powerful opportunity.

With Willis as second to the other front benches he could easily be filled with Bishop, Stanford, Reti and Todd McClay.

The Caucus has time to think about different colors in the coming days, and phones will be busy as decisions are made over and over again.

Collins did not choose to lead Tuesday. It is a week off, so there is no need to go to Parliament.

If Bridges chooses to run, his vote is one that he can be sure will not win.


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