Le variant Omicron, nouvelle menace pour la reprise économique mondiale

Affected by the plague, the global economy, on a full recovery, has already been affected by the Omicron genocide, which is accompanied by preventive measures, especially in the air transport sector.

Initially reported less than a week ago at the World Health Organization (WHO) in South Africa, these new challenges have been identified, from the Pacific to Europe, via Canada, which led 40 countries to declare travel bans.

The economic crisis will depend on the risks of this new species, the spread of the world’s vaccine and Omicron’s rejection of existing vaccines.

– Predictions downloaded –

Tokyo Haneda International Airport on November 29, 2021 (AFP – Philip FONG)

But, from the best to the darkest, economists are already working on the new 2022 predictions, all of which have been updated on the ground.

The International Monetary Fund has been battling for months that Covid remains a major global economic threat and is pushing for a vaccine roll. In October, it is expected to grow by 4.9% next year.

The economic crisis could be “minimal” according to 0.25 percent of global growth in 2022 if Omicron introduces “minor signals” and the vaccine is “working,” says Gregory Daco, an economist at Oxford Economics.

In the worst case scenario where the transition is becoming more deadly and responsible for blocking the majority of the world’s population, the 2022 growth could be halved, down to 2.3% versus 4.5%. form of this type.

And, in such cases, it is not uncommon for governments that have given billions of dollars to help since the epidemic began, are willing to raise funds especially if a vaccine is available, says Gregory Daco.

Types of Omicron in the World (AFP - Valentin RAKOVSKY)Types of Omicron in the World (AFP - Valentin RAKOVSKY)

Types of Omicron in the World (AFP – Valentin RAKOVSKY)

“This will be very important for you to know how this will affect the global economy and human behavior,” said Erik Lundh, an economist at the Conference Council.

– Self-control and weight loss –

Despite government efforts to curb the spread of Omicron, fear of contracting the virus could cause people to limit their ability to walk or eat, for example, to reduce the risk of infection.

Another risk is the ever-increasing complexity of global supply chains and falling prices.

Because “a large proportion of the aircraft pass through passenger planes,” recalls Erik Lundh.

Covid sign at Schiphol airport, Netherlands, November 29, 2021 (AFP - Kenzo TRIBOUILLARD)Covid sign at Schiphol airport, Netherlands, November 29, 2021 (AFP - Kenzo TRIBOUILLARD)

Covid sign at Schiphol airport, Netherlands, November 29, 2021 (AFP – Kenzo TRIBOUILLARD)

“If there is a suspension of the aircraft, interfering with the need for higher flights, this could prevent (…) airlifting,” he said.

In addition, the prevalence of Omicron disease could “cause some workers to retire temporarily and prevent others from returning, which in turn contributes to a reduction in the number of employees,” said Neil Shearing, a senior official.

No Covid differences have been of concern since the Delta’s discovery, which was previously passed.

U.S. President Joe Biden, however, said Monday that there was “no reason to panic”, even if the United States were to provide “early warning”.

As for vaccine manufacturers, AstraZeneca such as Pfizer / BioNTech, Moderna and Novavax have shown confidence in their ability to deal with this.

Fed President Jerome Powell on November 22, 2021 in Washington (AFP / Archives - JIM WATSON)Fed President Jerome Powell on November 22, 2021 in Washington (AFP / Archives - JIM WATSON)

Fed President Jerome Powell on November 22, 2021 in Washington (AFP / Archives – JIM WATSON)

– Has interest rates been disrupted? –

However, the threat of new reforms, which could be very dangerous, disrupts the work of central banks that can “delay their interest-bearing plans until things get better,” says Neil Shearing.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) is due to meet on December 15, with several others including the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England the following day.

“We know a lot about what we need to know (at Omicron) in a few weeks,” Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla told CNBC on Monday.

Meanwhile, “uncertainty is harmful,” says Gregory Daco. “Every time you return to a period of uncertainty and fear, it slows down the recovery of the global economy.”

On Monday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell himself warned: Omicron is a threat to the US economy, along with China and Europe, one of the world’s leading engines.

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