Analyse-Au Japon, un yen plus faible n’est peut-être pas la bénédiction qu’il était autrefois Par Reuters

Review-In Japan, a smaller yen may not be a blessing in the past

Par Tetsushi Kajimoto

TOKYO (Reuters) – The weakened yen, formerly seen as the ideal Japanese exporter, has now become a problem because it consumes domestic resources and confuses lawmakers.

The gradual shift from Japanese manufacturers to offshore means that the weak yen has become as low for exporters as it was a decade ago.

The change means that some members of Japan’s finance ministry, who are in charge of monetary policy and are known to intervene in the rise of the yen, are now focusing more on the decline in inflation, which is a result of rising inflation. outside.

To address these concerns this week, the dollar hit 115.525 yen, a level not seen since January 2017, when US inflation expectations contributed to the economic downturn and the Japanese economy’s decline.

“The weakened yen raises prices from abroad, in view of the value of companies that rely on imports and domestic purchasing power,” said Citi Kiichi Murashima, an economist. “The disadvantages of a weak yen could be greater than ever as the volume of imports grows exponentially.”

Restoring the yen ‘strong targets through mass cuts was one of the key goals of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe during his eight-year term in office until 2020. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida should follow this.

During this time, the yen lost 50% against the dollar. However, the volume of exports did not change much, meaning that lower prices, while still profitable for Japanese foreign companies, did not make the country’s goods more attractive to consumers.

A quarter of Japanese manufacturers spent offshore production in 2020, up from 18% in 2010, according to a study by the Ministry of Finance, Commerce and Industry.

The 2011 earthquake and tsunami contributed to the decline in trade as export demand declined and oil imports increased.

Exports now represent about 15% of Japan’s economy since 2020, the second smallest share among OECD countries after the United States and declining from 17.5% in 2007.

In contrast, the share of food security in GDP remained stable at 53%, which puts the economy at risk of inflation due to the weakening yen.

Until 2011, Japan would have stepped in to prevent a strong yen from disrupting export competition, but in many cases, it has taken steps to prevent a recession.

The last time Japan intervened to prevent the yen from falling was in 1998, during the Asian economic crisis, when the dollar exceeded 146 yen.

Researchers believe that such a move would be extremely difficult at this time, but some experts view the 125 yen as a possible line of sand on the sand.

A Reuters corporate survey earlier this month showed that nearly a third of those surveyed expected profits to decrease as the yen weakened.


Most importantly for lawmakers, the reduction in income has eroded the purchasing power of Japanese families, giving them less money than what they pay.

The depreciation of the yen has raised the prices of imported goods from luxury cars and expensive watches to mobile phones and foodstuffs such as American imported cattle.

For example, the price of a new iPhone model has tripled to 190,000 yen over the past decade, which is equivalent to 60% of Japan’s monthly salary. However, during this time, payments have remained unchanged.

Although the Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda asserts that the benefits of the depreciation of the yen always outweigh its disadvantages, such an idea is not shared equally.

“The recent weakening of the yen is serious, and it is detrimental to Japan’s purchasing power over time,” said a source familiar with the issue, stressing the need to restructure people’s debt and increase yields to make Japan better.

Some central banks have also recognized the problem.

“For large companies operating overseas, a weak yen increases their profits,” BOJ board member Junko Nakagawa told Bloomberg in a statement Friday. “On the other hand, a weak yen creates problems for domestic companies by increasing import costs.”

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